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A recent example of the volatility of stocks in new industries is the internet. In the late s, that industry became a bubble. Many companies failed to survive the subsequent crash but, a number of companies did survive and are now among the biggest companies in the world.
But, that is just one example of this pattern in history. When automobiles were new, car companies bubbled and crashed. So did radio stocks We all want to know when the next bear market will start. Fortunately, there is a way to know. There are actually many tools that will tell us exactly when the bear market starts. Of course, they all signal after the market turns.
Even though signals from some tools will come after the down turn is underway, these signals could still provide a profitable warning. And, it could be that early signals are dangerous to your wealth. Early Can Be Devastating Stocks can be on a sell signal well before the market turns down. The chart of the popular CAPE A hurricane makes landfall and devastates a large area of land. There is a sad story from a human perspective. This year, the story is centered in North Carolina. That was also in the midst of a bear market and that bear market was to become significantly worse.
Lost among some of the headlines is the fact that stocks were already in a bear market when the Lehman crisis unfolded. That makes comparisons between now and then less significant. Now, Lehman was a Wall Street institution and the bankruptcy of important firms has always rattled investors. History Has Lessons for Today History shows that was not unprecedented. For example, the chart clearly shows that the currency pair is rising over time:.
Therefore, more commonly, trends tend to operate in a series of gradually moving highs and lows. Thus, an uptrend is a series of escalating highs and lows, while a downtrend is a series of descending lows and highs. Figure 3 is an example of an uptrend. For this to remain an uptrend, each successive low must not fall below the previous lowest point or the trend, if it does, it is deemed a reversal. There are three types of trend: Some chartists consider that a sideways trend is actually not a trend on its own, but a lack of a well-defined trend in either direction.
Along with these three trend directions, there are three trend classifications that have to do with time duration in which the trend is taking place. A trend of any direction can be classified as either a long-term trend, an intermediate trend or a short-term trend. For forex trading, a long-term trend is composed of several intermediate trends. The short-term trends are components of both major and intermediate trends. Trendlines represent a charting technique, which a line is added to represent the trend in a currency pair.
Drawing a trendline is as simple as drawing a straight line that follows a general trend. Trendlines can also be used in identifying trend reversals. As you can see in Figure 5, an upward trendline is drawn at the lows of an upward trend. Notice how the price is propped up by this level of support. You can now see how this trendline can be used by traders to estimate the point at which a currency pair will begin moving upwards.
Similarly, a downward trendline is drawn at the highs of the downward trend.
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Figure 3 is an example of an uptrend. And, it could be that early signals are dangerous to your wealth.